Paul Bretl | 12/22/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — The Packers will enter Monday night’s matchup with the Saints as the heavy, heavy favorites in this game. Green Bay is favored by 14 points, a hefty and not frequently seen points spread in the NFL.
However, that points spread is the outside perception of how this game should unfold. Inside the building, the Packers are preparing for a Saints team that plays hard for 60 minutes and one that Matt LaFleur believes isn’t all that far off from being a playoff contender.
“The Saints have done an outstanding job,” said LaFleur on Saturday. “Teams are having a hard time moving the ball and having a hard time scoring points. A lot of these guys have been close. They’ve lost four games by three points or less. You’re talking about – that’s a very minimal difference. They could easily be sitting at 9-5 right now. I think our guys realize what type of team is coming in here and what’s at stake. So, I would expect us to play our best ball.”
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The Saints’ defense will enter Sunday’s game, allowing 22.3 points per game this season, which ranks as the 13th-best mark this season. There are two areas in particular where this unit thrives and that’s in getting after the quarterback and forcing interceptions.
Among all defensive ends, Chase Young’s 56 pressures are the ninth-most this season, while Carl Granderson’s 55 are the 11th-most. In the middle of that front is Bryan Bresee’s 30 pressures are the 27th-most out of all interior defenders in 2024. Collectively, New Orleans has generated the 12th-most sacks, and not to be forgotten about either is Cam Jordan, who has played at a high level for a long time.
“All of them,” said offensive line coach Luke Butkus when asked what the challenge is with the Saints’ defensive front. “All eight of them that they play, all eight of them are big, all of them are strong. They have some veteran leadership up there. They’re physical and they play with great effort. I like the guys that are really good that don’t play hard. These guys are really good and they play hard.”
And although the Saints’ defense doesn’t blitz often, when they do, those designed pressures often come on third downs and from disguised looks.
“They’re blitz packages, their third downs, they’ve got multiple different packages they use,” said Adam Stenavich. “They do a good job with Demario Davis, rushing and picking and all that stuff so they’ve done a good job all year just creating pressure on the quarterback, and they’ve done that for years. That’s a problem every time you play the Saints you know what you’re in for, but they do a really good job.”
Pressure, of course, disrupts the timing and rhythm of a play for the offense and can mean less time in coverage for the defensive backs. That speeding up of the process for quarterbacks can impact a passer’s mechanics, leading to inaccurate throws and mistakes.
For much of the season, the Packers’ offensive line has held up well against pressure, ranking eighth in ESPN’s pass-block win rate metric. Then, since the bye week in particular, Jordan Love has done a very good job of managing to avoid negative plays when he is under duress.
“I can’t say enough about Jordan’s ability to avoid the negative play and making those drastic moves in the pocket and getting the ball out for positive plays,” said LaFleur. “I don’t think people understand–I think it’s overlooked. Just the value of what he’s able to do in getting the ball out of his hands and not taking sacks.”
Patrolling the back end of Saints’ defense is Tyrann Mathieu, who has totaled three interceptions this season and a secondary as a whole that has been very good at making plays on the ball this season. The Saints rank fourth in pass deflections this season and are eighth in total interceptions.
“They’ve just been playing tough defense,” added LaFleur. “They’ve always had a pretty formidable front seven, and I would say that still remains true. And then they got guys that can take the ball away in the back, and they really challenge you. I think (Alontae) Taylor’s a really good corner. Obviously, the Honey Badger, he knows how to get the ball away. So they’ve got, they still got great players back there.”
Now, with that said, where New Orleans has been susceptible defensively is in the run game, surrendering 4.7 yards per rush this season. Although Josh Jacobs has already had a heavy workload this season–totaling the third-most carries among running backs–until their playoff position is set in stone, it sounds like it will remain business as usual, and given this matchup, that could mean another Jacobs-centric gameplan for the Packers.
On paper, the Saints are 5-9, made a coaching change earlier in the season, and are dealing with a number of key injuries. But as we all know, the game of football isn’t played on paper. This team will keep their foot on the game for all four quarters–look no further than last week’s performance against Washington.
Trailing 14-0 at halftime, the Saints made a change at quarterback, putting in rookie Spencer Rattler with Derek Carr sidelined. Rattler led an 11-play, 56-yard scoring drive that included a touchdown pass with no time left on the clock. The Saints would go for the win and attempt a two-point conversion that came up just short, and their second-half comeback was halted in what ended up being a 20-19 loss.
“Especially a rookie quarterback,” said LaFleur of Rattler’s performance against Washington. “I think that tells you a lot about the guy. He’s a talented guy. He was highly recruited coming out of high school and has been able to produce at the college level. He’s a natural thrower. I was impressed with him through the draft process last year. He’s got a lot of talent and he’s got some weapons around him.”
For the Packers, they are still chasing that elusive consistency in these final weeks. As good as their performance was against Seattle this past week, which included a very fast start, scoring on their first four possessions, and once again hitting the 30 point mark for the fourth straight game, there was a four possession stretch in the second half that went punt, fumble, punt, turnover on downs, and lasted a total of 15 plays.
It’s those types of stretches that the team has to avoid come January against the NFC’s best. It’s stretches like that one that can send a team home in the playoffs. And this week, against a Saints team that will give you its best shot for an entire game, it’s those types of possessions that can allow New Orleans to hang around.
“This is the National Football League,” LaFleur said. “You’d better get yourself ready to go, otherwise you’re going to get your ass kicked. I don’t care who you’re playing. I’ve got a lot of respect for these guys and if you looked at what they’ve been able to accomplish in a short period of time, I mean, look at the game last week and their ability to come back. I mean, they had a chance to win the game on the last play of the game. So, you just, to me, every week’s the same.”