Paul Bretl | 11/26/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — Coming off of a dominant performance against an, albeit shorthanded 49ers team, the Packers’ defense faces a bigger challenge this week against the speedy Miami Dolphins offense, one that will test their fundamentals and discipline.
“I think you’re just trusting your eyes, your discipline, just reacting to what you see,” said Lukas Van Ness of the Miami offense. “I think there’s going to be a lot of eyewash, a lot of stuff going on very similar to what we played last week, so that definitely helps with those similar systems. But again, trusting your fundamentals and trusting your eyes.”
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Now 12 weeks into the 2024 season, this year has had two starkly contrasting halves for the Miami offense. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa sustained a scary concussion in Week 2 that landed him on injured reserve. Without Tagovailoa over that following month, Miami had one of the worst offenses in football.
However, since his return in Week 8, as was expected at the start of the year, this has been one of the more high-powered units in football. During that five game span, the Dolphins are averaging 29.0 points per game and are winners of three of their last four.
Individually, Tagovailoa is first in completion percentage, completing a whopping 77 percent of his passes along with being fifth in both yards and touchdowns.
“He does such a great job of throwing with anticipation,” said Matt LaFleur of Tagovailoa. “He’s as good as it gets in this league. So, you’ve got to make sure you try to disrupt the timing somehow, some way, whether it’s getting him off the spot, because he will make you pay. If there’s just a sliver of light in there, he trusts his wideouts to be in the right spot. He hits his back foot and that ball gets out of his hands.
“So, it’s a great challenge. It really affords his guys, because he’s a very accurate thrower, as well, so when the ball’s coming out as quick as it does with him and he puts it on the money, it gives those guys the opportunity to run after catch, and we all know the speed that these guys have – it’s unlike probably any team in the National Football League.”
Surrounding Tagovailoa is a litany of speed and playmaking options. Of course, featured at the receiver position are Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle–both of whom averaged over 14 yards per catch in 2023 with a healthy Tagovailo. Then there is Jonnu Smith who is among the most productive tight ends in football this season, ranking fifth in receiving yards on the season.
Running back DeVon Achane brings a dynamic presence out of the backfield, both in the run game, where he’s averaged 6.0 yards per carry since Tagovailoa has returned, while also being among the league leaders in receiving yards at his position over the course of this season.
With that speed and playmaking comes big play potential, however, that doesn’t necessarily mean that you’ll see the Dolphins routinely throwing the ball downfield. Miami’s offense has the ability to turn a screen, which they run a lot of, or a quick throw into space into a massive gain.
“They’re definitely the fastest group that we’ve seen so far on tape,” said Jeff Hafley of the Miami skill position players. “We’ve got to do it in a variety of different ways – different coverages, different ways to try to slow them down. I don’t want to get into anything too specific, but it’s something that not a lot of people have been able to do. Ultimately you’ve got to try to keep the ball in front of you. Hopefully some of the things that we’re going to do, some of the adjustments we’re going to make will allow for that to happen.”
Handling this dynamic group in straight forward one-on-one matchups can present obvious challenges. But the added wrinkle that makes defending this offense all the more difficult is all of the eye-candy pre-snap, through motions and misdirections.
For any defense, trying to decipher what is real and what is fluff can be a real challenge. All of that pre-snap movement can stress a defense horizontally, creating both running and passing lanes to be exploited. And when coupled with Miami’s speed, it only takes one false step for a play to turn into a homerun.
“Trying to get your eyes in one spot so that they can hit something somewhere else,” said Evan Williams. “They have so much speed that they’re able to do that pretty effectively to a lot of these defenses. But for us, it’s just simplifying everything and while all the motion is happening just making sure your eyes are in the right spot. So thinking ahead, anticipating what you’re going to get to next and just being ready to be on your toes, make those adjustments, and put your feet in the ground.”
The Packers, at the moment, are navigating some injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Jaire Alexander remains sidelined as he works through a knee injury, as does Edgerrin Cooper, who exited last Wednesday’s practice with a hamstring injury. Also added to the injury report was linebacker Isaiah McDuffie, who was estimated as a non-participant in Monday’s practice, which was really just a walkthrough.
If McDuffie can’t go, the Packers will lean heavily on Eric Wilson when in their nickel alignment and likely Ty’Ron Hopper when they line up in their base defense. This Dolphins’ offense, in particular, can really stress the linebacker position with all of their pre-snap movement, along with Tagovailoa heavily targeting short and intermediate routes in the passing game.
“I thought in the snaps that he went in for last week, I thought he did a nice job,” LaFleur said of Hopper. “I think he’s shown progress, and that progress has been seen at practice. It always starts there and that gives us confidence to put him in the game. I thought just the way he went out there and competed, I thought it was at a high level.”
At cornerback this past Sunday without Alexander, Keisean Nixon continued to start on the boundary with Javon Bullard in the slot, while Carrington Valentine and Eric Stokes alternated series opposite of Nixon.
With the linebacker and cornerback positions navigating injuries, there will be an added emphasis on the play of the Packers’ defensive front. When throwing from a clean pocket, Tagovailoa’s completion rate is 75 percent at 8.9 yards per attempt. However, when under duress, his completion rate plummets to 40 percent and only 5.3 yards per attempt.
But pressuring Tagovailoa won’t come easy. The Dolphins’ offensive line has the third-lowest pressure rate in football this season, and contributing to that success is how quickly Tagovailoa gets the ball out of his hands, with an average time to throw of 2.33 seconds–the quickest mark in the NFL.
“I’ve just noticed that he gets the ball out really, really quick,” said Van Ness of Tagovailoa. “So I think first and second down up front we’ve just gotta do what we can to try to impact those throws. We know they’re going to do a lot of different things, whether that’s screens or different looks, so just reacting fast, playing fast and doing what we can to help affect him.”
In order to have steady opportunities to generate pressure, the Packers’ defense has to eat its vegetables on early downs and slow the Miami run game. While the pass-catching options that the Dolphins have will garner plenty of attention, their 28.7 rush attempts per game are the eighth-most in football. As is the case with the other Shanahan-esque offenses, the foundation begins with the run game.
The trickle-down effect of not being able to contain Achane and Raheem Mostert on the ground will keep the Miami offense ahead of the sticks, where the entire playbook is then open to them at that point. And when you put together an off-balanced defense wary of both the run and the pass, all of the misdirection and motion Miami utilizes, along with the dynamic players on this offense, well, that’s a recipe for a long day.
Everything just described isn’t all that unlike what they just saw a few days ago against the San Francisco offense, with Miami head coach Mike McDaniel coming from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. But the biggest difference, obviously, is the quarterback position. Where the Packers could go a bit heavier and really emphasize taking away the run game against Brandon Allen, they won’t have the luxury of doing that on Thursday against Tagovailoa and the weapons around him.
“You’ll see them throw the ball downfield and hit some big plays,” added Hafley, “but then you’ll see a lot of catch-and-run, where in rhythm he’s throwing the ball, whether it’s play-action or he’s just getting the ball out quick in quick game. He does a really good job with it. He’s accurate. Like I said, he really throws the ball in rhythm well, and then he has those guys, when they catch it, you’d better be on them or you’d better take great angles.
“They probably throw as many screens as we’ve seen on film, and a variety of different ones. And it’s not just the receivers. It’s the backs, too. So they’ve done a really good job creating some mismatches, getting the ball in space and letting their guys kind of catch and run. So they do a really good job with that.”