Paul Bretl | 11/11/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — At 6-3, there’s been a lot that has gone right for the Packers through the first half of the season. However, the goal is to be peaking at the right time come the playoffs, and in order to do that, more consistency is going to be required during the second half of the season.
“I think just more consistency and maybe a little bit better in situational football,” said Brian Gutekunst last Tuesday. “I think to be the team that can go deep in the playoffs and to contend for championships that you have to be that kind of team. We’re working towards that and I think these guys have had really good moments but you’ve got to be consistent with that, you’ve got to be able to call upon that whenever you need it.”
Overall, the Packers rank ninth in points per game and third in yards per game. But the up-and-down performances on offense are happening fairly often this season. Going back to the team’s Week 4 matchup with Minnesota, the Packers had 10 drives, whether they resulted in a score, turnover or punt that lasted fewer than five plays. The week after, versus the Rams, six of the Packers’ 10 possessions ended in three plays or fewer.
Against the Houston Texans in Week 8, the Packers had six drives with fewer than six plays ran. The following week in Jacksonville, there were seven, which did include some scoring drives as well. It was then a similar story versus Detroit prior to the bye week.
One of the reasons that the Packers’ offense still ranks among the league’s best in several categories is because of the boom-or-bust nature of this unit. We see the dynamic playmaking ability this unit possesses with their ability to score quickly. However, this is a group that have also struggled to overcome setbacks on drives.
Generating explosive plays are great and often lead to points. The Packers will enter Week 11 ranking top-five in explosive plays generated this season–an element that is important to the success of any offense. With that said, that can’t be an offenses only way for moving the ball either.
This boom-or-bust approach on offense seems to be stemming from issues on early downs–particularly first down. Whether it be a missed assignment on a run play, a penalty, or an incomplete pass that’s either off-target or dropped, the Packers are putting themselves in disadvantageous situations and long down-and-distance scenarios.
The opponent gets paid to make plays too, but oftentimes, it is these self-inflicted errors that are putting the Packers behind the sticks, which then gives the defense the upper hand in those long down-and-distances. And through the first half of the season, the Packers aren’t operating at a consistent enough level to overcome those setbacks. They will enter Week 11 ranked in the bottom-third of the league in third-down success rate and have been abysmal in the red zone, ranking 30th.
“I think you have to work towards that, to play your best football at the end of the season,” added Gutekunst. “There’s times I think we’ve had teams here in the past who’ve maybe come out played really good football early and then faded at the end.
“We had a team last year that really came on strong towards the end of the season and I really liked the way Matt handled the team and the way we got better week-in and week-out and were really playing our best football at the end of the season. And that’s kind of what I expect this year. I think there guys are working, I think they work the right way, are made of the right stuff. Again, they’ve got to go do it. But I’m excited for the second half.”
Then in a category of its own are the Jordan Love interceptions. Love entered the bye week with 10 interceptions which was tied for the most in football, despite missing two games this season. As you can guess, he also ranks ninth in turnover-worthy plays as well, and the two pick-sixes are tied with Will Levis for the most in football.
Love possesses a big-time arm and has the ability to make all the throws on the field, which, along with the interceptions, we’ve seen numerous examples of this season as well. He trusts what he sees and his ability to put the ball where he needs to.
But with that said, at times, and as we saw against Detroit, he looks like someone who is trying to do too much as he and the rest of the offense try to overcome the holes that the offense has put themselves in. An example of this is that five of Love’s 10 interceptions have come when he’s been blitzed. Love’s decision-making in certain situations has to improve.
“There’s some that I’m sure he would like back and I’m sure our team would like back, as well,” said Gutekunst about Love. “Again, when you’re able to make plays like does, I think there’s a bit of a fine line where you’re feeling it out. He’s still a very young player from the amount of times he’s started. I’ve always thought it’s about 20-26 games before guys really settle into what they’re doing and I think he’s a little bit in that time right now, as well.”
There are obviously far higher expectations for this year’s Packers team compared to last, but at this point in the season, while still searching for consistency, Green Bay is light years ahead of where they were at this time during the 2023 season.
Although it’s been a bumpy ride at times, what this Packers team has shown is the ability to win in a variety of ways. They’ve won games with the defense and forcing turnovers. They’ve won games through the air with splash plays and on the ground where they lean heavily on Josh Jacobs. They’ve won with a backup quarterback. They’ve been behind, they’ve jumped out to early leads, and they’ve shown a willingness to adjust.
Being a chameleon when it comes to winning could prove to be quite valuable in those final weeks of the season and into the playoffs, when the intensity is turned up a few notches and the already small margin for error shrinks even more. When facing the best teams, they are going to try to take away what the Packers do well, forcing Green Bay to adjust and adapt on the fly, and perhaps having to find different ways to win the game.
What can send teams home early in the postseason is not knowing how to make those changes when adversity strikes, or at least not doing so effectively. At the end of the day, all that matters is the win and loss columns, but at the halfway point in the season, this is a Packers team that has been tested in different ways, and oftentimes, Green Bay has responded.
As Gutekunst said, it’s all about playing your best football at the end of the season. Certainly, there is no guarantee that will be the case for the 2024 Packers–they need to overcome these self-inflicted errors and make it happen. But I do think it’s fair to say the recipe for a second-half surge does exist between the talent and the willingness to adapt, as long as the consistency can be found.
“I really do like our depth,” Gutekunst said. “We’ve got to continue to come together as a football team and play better football at times, but we’re 6-3, I think we’re in a good spot, I’m excited about the second half of the season and to see how these guys grow together.”