Paul Bretl | 10/7/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — The Packers offense was able to do just enough with the help of some takeaways from the defense to secure the win over the Los Angeles Rams. The overall performance was very ‘feast or famine,’ as Matt LaFleur put it, with either big plays or short drives taking place.
“I was talking to Jordan about this in the locker room,” said LaFleur after the game, “just in terms of it seems like we’re a little bit feast or famine offensively in terms of we either get the big plays and we go score or there’s no big plays and we’re punting. We do have to get a little bit more consistency, just making sure we’re getting positive plays, staying ahead of the sticks, trying to stay out of third downs as best we can.”
Jordan Love finished the game averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt. For some context, over the course of the season up to this point, that would be the second-highest rate in football. The catalyst behind that figure was a 66-yard catch and run touchdown to Tucker Kraft, a 53-yard touchdown pass to Jayden Reed, and a 21-yard catch and run from Josh Jacobs.
So of the Packers 24 points in this game, 14 game from just two of those plays. So what about the rest of the game?
In the first half, outside of the Packers nine-play touchdown drive that was capped off with the aforementioned pass to Reed, Green Bay had five other drives, with four of them ending in three plays or fewer, resulting in three punts and a pick-six from Love.
In the second-half, the Packers turned two takeaways into touchdowns, one of which was a two-play drive with the Kraft touchdown and the other lasting seven plays. Their next two drives ended in punts, one of which was 14 plays and did eat up some valuable time and the other being just four plays.
Excluding the kneel-down on the final series, the Packers had 10 possessions in this game and six of them ended in three plays or fewer. Green Bay finished the game just 1-for-8 on third downs and didn’t convert their first third down until the fourth quarter. Typically that isn’t going to be a stat you hear when talking about the winning team.
“I think there’s so much that we need to build on,” Jordan Love said after the game. “I think we leave a lot of plays out there, and then we make some really good plays as well. I think it just comes down to consistent execution and trying to be as clean as we can for four quarters. And I don’t think we’ve done that yet. I don’t think we’ve played a full four-quarter game that’s clean.
“There’s so much stuff that we can look back on, can watch film when we get back and stuff to clean up, but I like who we have. I think we’re just going to keep building, but there’s definitely a lot of stuff to clean up.”
This isn’t a one-off performance either. Last week against the Minnesota Vikings–where certainly, the dynamic chances when trailing by early–the Packers had 10 drives that, whether they resulted in a turnover, punt or touchdown, ended in five plays or fewer.
Explosive pass plays are great–they lead to points. And the Packers’ offense entered Week 5 as the best in football at generating big plays with 37 of them. The next closest team was the Indianapolis Colts with 29. However, it’s also a tough way to live in the NFL if that is your primary means for moving the football.
“I think explosive plays lead to points,” LaFleur said. “That’s a fact. The stats are pretty staggering when you talk about explosion plays and your ability to score or, if you don’t give them up, your ability to stop people. So that’s something that we’re always hunting. It’s just the consistency, I would say, down in and down out.”
To a lesser extent in comparison to last season, this boom-or-bust approach on offense seems to be stemming from issues on early downs–particularly first down. Whether it be a run play that doesn’t go anywhere, a penalty, or an incomplete pass, whether that’s due to an off-target throw from Love or a dropped pass by the receiver, the Packers are putting themselves in disadvantageous long down-and-distance situations.
“Penalties are a consistent problem,” said LaFleur. “Certainly don’t have the answer for that right now. It’s extremely frustrating and it’s been an Achilles heel for us and it’s a big reason why we haven’t won more, in my opinion. That’s something that we have to get corrected and we better do it quick because I want to say this is probably the most penalized team that we’ve had in my six years in Green Bay.”
During these obvious passing downs, the pass rush is able to pin its ears back and the secondary has the advantage from a coverage standpoint because there usually only so much time for the quarterback and so many routes that can be ran when needing eight-plus yards.
In terms of the overall scope of the game, it becomes more difficult to marry the run-and-pass games as offenses become more pass-heavy, and the short possessions can result in a discrepancy in the number of plays ran for each team–wearing out the defense and forcing the offense to be extremely efficient with its opportunities, which isn’t going to lead to sustainable success.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Packers average distance to go on second down is 8.29 yards and on third down it’s 7.5 yards. In both instances, this is around a full yard more than last season.
There are certainly stretches in each of these last two games where it looks and feels like the Packers’ offense is on the cusp of really taking off. However, more than anything, accomplishing that begins with them getting out of their own way on early downs so they can consistently sustain drives and get into a rhythm on offense.
“You either get better or you get worse; you’re never staying the same,” added LaFleur. “Every week is a new challenge. I think that’s a lot of coachspeak but I believe in that. I think it all starts with your preparation and how you approach it and your willingness to put the work in to strive to get better in practice, and that gives you the confidence to go out there and make plays in the game. There’s certainly a lot of areas where we have to get better.”