Paul Bretl | 12/30/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — The Packers’ pass rush, which had been trending in the right direction over the last several weeks, took a step backward on Sunday in Minnesota and fell flat as Sam Darnold threw for nearly 400 yards.
According to PFF’s metrics, Darnold was under duress on only 31% of his dropbacks. For some context, compared to the rest of the NFL over the course of the 2024 season, that pressure rate would rank 32nd out of 42 eligible quarterbacks.
From a clean pocket, Darnold was 26-of-30 passing for 315 yards with three touchdowns. He was particularly effective over the middle of the field, completing 85% of his throws for 289 of his total yards with two scores.
“As defensive linemen, guys that are pressuring, we definitely have to finish those plays because those plays change games,” said Kenny Clark. “We’ve got to get them behind the sticks. He (Darnold) did some great things moving or breaking tackles or whatever the case may be, whether it was an incomplete pass or completing something short, he did a good job of doing it.”
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Pressure, of course, is what every defense week in and week out is chasing. It leads to sacks, which puts the offense behind the sticks and in predictable passing situations, and it disrupts the timing and rhythm of the play, forcing the quarterback to speed up his process, which can lead to poor mechanics and mistakes.
But on the flip side, time in the pocket, especially for a Vikings’ offense that has as many weapons in the passing game as they do, can be too much for just about any defense to overcome as it puts an added burden on what was a shorthanded Packers’ secondary, forcing the defensive backs to have to cover longer.
In a game where the Packers were already without Jaire Alexander and Evan Williams, Zayne Anderson would exit the game early with a concussion, requiring Javon Bullard to move from the nickel to safety and Eric Stokes to then start on the boundary after some shuffling took place.
When it was all said and done, Darnold was extremely efficient, completing 33-of-43 passes for 377 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Four different Vikings’ pass catchers had at least five receptions and 68 yards, with Justin Jefferson leading the way with 92 receiving yards.
“They have some good plays,” said Xavier McKinney. “They’re a good football team. They’re gonna make plays. We can’t stop everything. But there’s just certain situations where we just gotta be better. We gotta be cleaner. But they’re gonna make plays. He’s a good quarterback. They got a good team. They got good offensive players who can make plays for them. So yeah, we just gotta be better.”
The Green Bay run defense continued to hold up well, as it has done for much of the season, with Minnesota averaging just 2.7 yards per rush as a team and totaling just 69 rushing yards. Oftentimes, this can be a precursor for defensive success as it puts the offense in long down-and-distance situations where the pass rush can pin its ears back. However, if the pass rush isn’t getting home consistently, then that advantage that the defense is supposed to have is negated to a degree.
As mentioned, the Packers pass rush, which has been inconsistent for much of the season, had been more productive as of late. Prior to the Vikings’ game, the Packers’ weekly pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks had ranked 12th or better in four of their last five games.
A key factor in that success was the complementary football component, with the Green Bay offense jumping out to early leads, making the opponent one-dimensional, which benefits the pass rush. But that element was missing in this game as it was the Packers who fell behind quickly.
So against one of the NFC’s best, we saw the pass rush regress to what we had seen for much of the season, which is a group that struggles to get after the quarterback regularly with just a four-man rush. The Green Bay defense currently ranks 26th in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate metric.
“You’ve got to get pressure against these guys, if they’re going to drop back that many times,” said Matt LaFleur. “If you don’t, it’s going to be a long day because it’s tough to go try to single-coverage a guy like Justin Jefferson, and then you’ve got Addison, then you’ve got Hockenson. They’ve got multiple players. Like I said, Nailor was making plays out there. They’ve got a lot of good players.”
At the end of the day, the results are what matters most, but context is important and in a 4-3 defensive scheme, the front is at a numbers disadvantage, facing five offensive linemen. That numbers advantage then only grows for the offense if they use a tight end to chip or keep a running back in the backfield to help. Then, all of a sudden, it is six blockers versus four defenders. By PFF’s metrics, both Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark are among the most chipped and double-teamed defenders at their positions.
Now, this isn’t to say things shouldn’t be better or that there isn’t more opportunity out there for this pass-rush unit–both things are true. But it’s also not as if there are an overwhelming number of one-on-one matchups that this front is regularly seeing.
And when Jeff Hafley does blitz, particularly against Darnold and the Vikings’ offense, that pressure better get home almost immediately; otherwise, the back end of the defense is then the one at a numbers disadvantage. Against the blitz on Sunday, Darnold was lights out, completing 12-of14 passes for 131 yards with a score. His average time to throw on such plays was 3.06 seconds, according to PFF, further illustrating that the designed pressures weren’t all that effective.
“They’ve got two legitimate No. 1 receivers, and then they’ve got Nailor out there making play after play,” LaFleur said. “They’ve got a lot of weapons. Hockenson made some plays. So we just ultimately collectively as a unit, everybody’s got to play a little bit better.”
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: the consistency and the effectiveness of the pass rush is going to determine the ceiling for this Packers’ defense this season. When there is a steady pass rush presence, every defender on the field benefits. However, when that element isn’t there, then the job of every defender on the field becomes more difficult.