Paul Bretl | 12/13/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — The Packers are again going to find themselves short-handed in the secondary with a potent Seattle passing game awaiting them this week.
The good news is that on Friday, Matt LaFleur did say that Evan Williams had cleared concussion protocol, so one would expect him to be available on Sunday night.
However, Javon Bullard, who LaFleur called “week-to-week” on Monday after he exited the Detroit game with an ankle injury, did not practice at all this week and will be ruled out. In addition to not having Bullard, Jaire Alexander will be out as well. While Alexander had been a full participant on Wednesday and Thursday, he was held out of Friday’s practice.
Alexander was not hitting the required speeds on the practice field that the Packers wanted to see and LaFleur also added that he wanted to avoid another situation like the team had against Chicago, where Alexander exited after a few plays, leaving the Packers’ short on defenders on the back end.
“There’s certain requirements to get out there and go play,” Matt LaFleur said on Friday. “Certain speeds and whatnot, when you’re not hitting them, you’re not ready to play.”
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Since before the draft, the Packers have remained confident in the cornerback position, sentiments that GM Brian Gutekunst echoed again during the bye week last month, and in their secondary depth as a whole. However, the results on the field, particularly from the cornerback position without Alexander have been mixed, to say the least.
Awaiting the Packers’ secondary this week is a Seattle passing attack led by the three-headed monster at wide receiver, which features Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. Together, this trio can stress opposing defenses at all levels of the field.
Smith-Njigba, who primarily lines up from the slot and has 99 targets this season, has been one of the most productive receivers in football, totaling the fifth most receiving yards with 911 and has generated the sixth-most yards after the catch of any receiver.
“He can run,” said McKinney of Smith-Njigba. “He makes some really high-difficulty catches, and he gets open. I think those are the biggest things for him really.”
Metcalf has 90 targets of his own with no receiver in football being targeted on downfield passes more than him. Metcalf is averaging 15.0 yards per catch and totaled 812 receiving yards. Lockett, meanwhile, has been an efficient target, catching 70% of his passes for 511 yards.
Without Bullard in this game, that would likely mean that Keisean Nixon will be moved from the boundary to the slot to match up with Smith-Njigba. From there, with Alexander out, Eric Stokes and Carrington Valentine will handle the boundary responsibilities when Green Bay is in nickel, and then Williams will be next to McKinney at safety.
“For sure,” said Eric Stokes when asked if it’s difficult to not chase the big play. “But the one thing that my coaches always taught me is don’t go chasing for plays. The plays will find you. Just go ahead and continue to stick to your rules, continue to do everything that you can do, and everything else is just going to fall into place.”
The Packers will enter Week 15 ranked 17th in yards per pass attempt allowed. The issue hasn’t been that they’ve been giving up a lot of explosive plays through the air, but instead it’s the lack of ball production and relatively high completion rates without Alexander on the field.
Despite what some may not want to hear, Nixon has provided some stability at the boundary cornerback position, giving up fewer than 10.0 yards per catch this season. While he may not be someone you want as your top cornerback option–which he has had to be in recent weeks–he can be a steady No. 2, particularly with some added help over the top from the safety position with Alexander’s presence providing more flexibility to move defenders around on the back-end.
“I think he’s taken his game up another level,” LaFleur said of Nixon, “in terms of every year, he’s a guy that’s shown the ability and has gotten better and more consistent in his football in terms of him going out there and performing. So Kei is a guy that we’ve got a lot of confidence in, and he’s shown the versatility to play not on the inside, but to go out on the outside. And not everybody can do that.”
However, having said that, while surrendering only 9.6 yards per catch and limiting the pass-catcher’s YAC is good in a vacuum, the completion rate of 67% is hurting the defense. Even Eric Stokes, who has been picked on by opposing quarterbacks, is allowing just 10.8 yards per catch this season with a completion rate of 66%. Valentine has only two games where he’s giving up more than 12.5 yards per catch–which again, on its own won’t drastically hurt a defense. But he’s allowing receptions on 71% of his targets.
As a defense, if we take away McKinney’s seven interceptions, the rest of the Packers’ defense has only five. Green Bay has also totaled the third-fewest pass deflections this season. On their own, completions of 10 or 11 yards won’t dismantle a defense, but when those type of plays are being given up consistently, it allows the opposing offense to pick up first downs, stay on the field, and put themselves into positions to put up points. That’s where the issue lies for the Packers’ secondary.
Naturally, when Alexander is on the field, this group performs much better. Alexander has surrendered a completion rate of just 56 percent this season with two interceptions, seven pass deflections, and a passer rating when targeted of just 79.9. His presence then has a ripple effect through the gameplan, including what the duties of other members of the secondary are and where additional help can be provided.
“When Ja is healthy, he’s one of the best corners in our league,” said Hafley on Thursday. “Week in and week out, when you’re playing against some premier players, sometimes it’s helpful to have a premier player to have out there with him. So if he’s available, that would be great. If he’s not, I say this with complete confidence in all the other players we have, I’m confident that they’ll go out and we’ll compete and continue to play better and play good defense.”
The Packers up-and-down pass rush will have to play a pivotal role in this game by helping their secondary out and getting after quarterback Geno Smith. Green Bay will enter this game ranked 26th in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate, with the Seattle offensive line ranking 22nd in pass-block win rate, having given up the ninth most sacks this season. It’s a matchup that one unit has to win, and whoever does, may give their team the upper hand.
Pressure on Smith could lead to mistakes and turnover opportunities. He will enter Week 15 having thrown the third-most interceptions this season. But it also means less time in coverage for the Packers’ secondary.
However, on the flip side, time in the pocket is going to put the Green Bay cornerbacks in some difficult positions. Over the last three games, Smith has been efficient, completing 72% of his throws at 7.5 yards per attempt with three touchdowns to just one interception.
“He’s a dangerous quarterback,” LaFleur said of Smith. “Obviously he’s one of the top passers in the league right now and he can beat you with his legs, as well, if you give him the opportunity.
“I think he’s got a lot of talented receivers and tight ends to throw to and you add in the two backs and their offense is just, it’s improved throughout the course of the year, and he’s a big reason for that, just his level to go out there and play consistent football.”
Even with a fully healthy defensive back room, the Seattle receivers can present a difficult test for any secondary, but the magnitude of the challenge will be much greater with the Packers now down two of their starting cornerbacks.