Paul Bretl | 12/11/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — The Packers face some injury unknowns in the secondary, but appear to be trending in the right direction as they begin their week of practices in preparation for a potent Seattle passing game.
The lone Packer not practicing in some capacity on Wednesday was Javon Bullard, who exited last Thursday’s game against Detroit with an ankle injury. On Monday, Matt LaFleur would call Bullard “week to week.”
On the practice field was Evan Williams, although he still remains in concussion protocol, as well as Jaire Alexander. Working through a PCL injury, Alexander returned to practice in a limited capacity last week but did not play against Detroit. He was, however, a full participant on Wednesday.
“I’ve gotta go back and watch the tape,” said LaFleur of Alexander after Wednesday’s practice. “But from when I was watching him, he looked like he was moving around well, and we’ll just see how it transpires throughout the course of the week. And hopefully he’ll be ready to roll.”
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Since before the draft, the Packers have remained confident in the cornerback position, sentiments that GM Brian Gutekunst echoed again during the bye week last month, and in their secondary depth as a whole. However, the results on the field, particularly from the cornerback position without Alexander have been mixed, to say the least.
Awaiting the Packers’ secondary this week is a Seattle passing attack led by the three-headed monster at wide receiver, which features Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. Together, this trio can stress opposing defenses at all levels of the field.
Smith-Njigba, who primarily lines up from the slot and has 99 targets this season, has been one of the most productive receivers in football, totaling the fifth most receiving yards with 911 and has generated the sixth-most yards after the catch of any receiver.
“He’s a guy that we studied extensively coming out in the draft and he’s rounding into a pretty darn good receiver,” LaFleur said. “He’s gotten more opportunity and you’re seeing the production out there. So, he’s become a go-to guy for them.”
Metcalf has 90 targets of his own with no receiver in football being targeted on downfield passes more than him. Metcalf is averaging 15.0 yards per catch and totaled 812 receiving yards. Lockett, meanwhile, has been an efficient target, catching 70% of his passes for 511 yards.
I’ll, of course, provide the caveat that things can change, but early on in the week it doesn’t look like the Packers will have Bullard available on Sunday. This would almost certainly mean that Keisean Nixon will be moved from the boundary to the slot to matchup with Smith-Njigba.
From there, how the rest of the secondary is put together is dependent upon the availability of Williams and Alexander. Without Williams during the second half against Detroit, Zayne Anderson took over at safety next to Xavier McKinney. If Alexander can go, my guess is that we continue to see Eric Stokes and Carrington Valentine in some sort of rotation. On the flip side, if the team is without Alexander, then Stokes and Valentine will be the team’s boundary cornerbacks.
The Packers will enter Week 15 ranked 17th in yards per pass attempt allowed. The issue hasn’t been that they’ve been giving up a lot of explosive plays through the air, but instead it’s the lack of ball production and relatively high completion rates without Alexander on the field.
Despite what some may not want to hear, Nixon has provided some stability at the boundary cornerback position, giving up fewer than 10.0 yards per catch this season. While he may not be someone you want as your top cornerback option–which he has had to be in recent weeks–he can be a steady No. 2, particularly with some added help over the top from the safety position with Alexander’s presence providing more flexibility to move defenders around on the back-end.
“I think he’s taken his game up another level,” LaFleur said of Nixon, “in terms of every year, he’s a guy that’s shown the ability and has gotten better and more consistent in his football in terms of him going out there and performing. So Kei is a guy that we’ve got a lot of confidence in, and he’s shown the versatility to play not on the inside, but to go out on the outside. And not everybody can do that.”
However, having said that, while surrendering only 9.6 yards per catch and limiting the pass-catcher’s YAC is good in a vacuum, the completion rate of 67% is hurting the defense. Even Eric Stokes, who has been picked on by opposing quarterbacks, is allowing just 10.8 yards per catch this season with a completion rate of 66%. Valentine has only two games where he’s giving up more than 12.5 yards per catch–which again, on its own won’t drastically hurt a defense. But he’s allowing receptions on 71% of his targets.
As a defense, if we take away McKinney’s seven interceptions, the rest of the Packers’ defense has only five. Green Bay has also totaled the third-fewest pass deflections this season. On their own, completions of 10 or 11 yards won’t dismantle a defense, but when those type of plays are being given up consistently, it allows the opposing offense to pick up first downs, stay on the field, and put themselves into positions to put up points. That’s where the issue lies for the Packers’ secondary.
Naturally, when Alexander is on the field, this group performs much better. Alexander has surrendered a completion rate of just 56 percent this season with two interceptions, seven pass deflections, and a passer rating when targeted of just 79.9.
“You’re talking about an elite player at his position,” LaFleur said of Alexander. “So it definitely is tough when he’s not out there, but that is the case for a lot of teams in this league, missing players, and you’ve got to have the next guy step up, be ready to go, and can never let that standard slip.”
The Packers up and down pass rush will have to play a pivotal role in this game by helping their secondary out and getting after quarterback Geno Smith. Green Bay will enter this game ranked 26th in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate, with the Seattle offensive line ranking 22nd in pass-block win rate, having given up the ninth most sacks this season. It’s a matchup that one unit has to win, and whoever does, may give their team the upper hand.
Pressure on Smith could lead to mistakes and turnover opportunities. He will enter Week 15 having thrown the third-most interceptions this season. But it also means less time in coverage for the Packers’ secondary.
However, on the flip side, time in the pocket is going to put the Green Bay cornerbacks in some difficult positions. Over the last three games, Smith has been efficient, completing 72% of his throws at 7.5 yards per attempt with three touchdowns to just one interception.
“He’s a dangerous quarterback,” LaFleur said of Smith. “Obviously he’s one of the top passers in the league right now and he can beat you with his legs, as well, if you give him the opportunity.
“I think he’s got a lot of talented receivers and tight ends to throw to and you add in the two backs and their offense is just, it’s improved throughout the course of the year, and he’s a big reason for that, just his level to go out there and play consistent football.”
With or without Alexander and Williams, the Seattle receivers will present a difficult test for the Packers’ secondary, but the magnitude of the challenge will be dependent upon the availability of those two players, which at this time for Alexander, seems to be trending in the right direction.