Paul Bretl | 12/5/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — In a back-and-forth game like we saw between the Packers and Lions on Thursday night, there may end up being just a few plays that end up determining the outcome. In this instance, we can point to the Packers’ lack of success on third downs and the Lions’ ability to extend drives and stay on the field as the crucial difference in this game.
“I think really offensively and defensively, the third and fourth down was probably the difference in the game,” said Matt LaFleur post-game.
What can’t happen against the Lions is a slow start, but that’s exactly what took place for the Green Bay offense. Their first possession lasted only five plays and ended with a punt. Their second possession was just three plays that resulted in a punt, and the third possession was just two plays before Christian Watson fumbled.
“Obviously didn’t start fast enough,” said Jordan Love after the game. “Didn’t convert on those third downs, those crucial third downs early on, and that’s something we’ve been trying to focus on the past couple of weeks and I think it’s something we’ve been better at but any time you can’t stay on the field right there, it’s not going to be good.”
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Right off the bat, the Packers found themselves 0-2 on third downs, and the one positive play they did have in the first three possessions ended up being a turnover. The defense would keep the Packers within striking distance and the offense began to find a rhythm, scoring on their final possession before halftime, opening the third quarter with a touchdown drive that was sparked by a deep ball to Watson, and then capitalizing with seven more points following an interception by Keisean Nixon, briefly giving Green Bay the lead.
However, in the two separate instances where the Packers took the lead in the second half, the defense would give it right back to Detroit. And then when just about everyone knew that Green Bay needed a touchdown at the end of the game, they were forced to settle for a field goal.
“The most disappointing part about it was knowing that we had chances out there and we left some of them on the field,” said Tucker Kraft. “That’s every game. That’s every team in the NFL. Lions are a good team. We knew that.”
The Packers’ offense would finish the game converting just 1-of-5 third down attempts. This was an area where they struggled for the first half of the season, but had gained some traction in recent games, led by Josh Jacobs and the running game, coming into Thursday’s matchup with a success rate of nearly 50 percent over the last two games.
Yet against Detroit, all we seemingly had to watch for was what happened on the early downs to know if the Packers would string together a drive or if they’d sputter and stall out. Success on the early downs just about kept the Packers out of third-down situations altogether, hence why they only five opportunities the entire game.
But if there was a penalty, an incomplete pass, pressure on Jordan Love, or a run that didn’t go anywhere, and Green Bay would find themselves in long down and distances, the drive just about ended every time. On the drives that didn’t end in a touchdown–or a fumble–the Packers faced a 3rd-and-7, 3rd-and-6, 3rd-and-9, and 3rd-and-goal from the 14-yard line.
“It felt like we hadn’t really found a rhythm,” said Josh Myers about the first half. “We found ourselves early in some third and longs, passing situations where they were able to do what they like to do. So just gotta do a better job staying out of those early on and then when we are in them we’ve got to do a better job picking them up.”
While the Packers remained committed to the run, it was tough sledding for Josh Jacobs behind the Green Bay front, even as Detroit dealt with numerous injuries along the defensive line. Jacobs would average only 3.7 yards per carry, often running into heavy boxes. Then, on passing plays, Love was often under duress, under pressure on 42 percent of his dropbacks per PFF, and blitzed frequently.
On the other side of the ball, the Detroit offense was very efficient in those must-have-it situations, converting 7-of-15 third downs and 4-of-5 fourth down attempts–two of which came on fourth-and-goal and one came on the Lions’ final drive, allowing them to run the clock down and kick the game-winning field goal.
“It’s tough,” said Xavier McKinney of the Lions’ fourth-down success. “We all gotta be locked in and we all gotta do our jobs, including myself. I think it starts with me. We just gotta be more locked in and more detailed. We gotta get those stops and we weren’t able to do that today.”
Against one of the most potent rushing offenses in football and two of the game’s most dynamic running backs, the Packers run defense would hold it’s own. This wasn’t the issue. David Montgomery would average just 3.6 yards per rush and Jahmyr Gibbs 2.9 yards per carry.
The problem, however, was Jared Goff and the passing game. While the Packers’ offense fell into those disadvantageous long down-and-distances that killed their drives, the Lions stayed ahead of the sticks via the short and intermediate passing games.
Goff, as he is, was very efficient, completing 32-of-41 passes for 283 yards with three touchdowns to one interception. Goff was particularly devastating over the middle of the field where he was 14-for-17 passing for 152 yards and two scores.
“They’ve got great playmakers, and they just try to get them the ball,” said Matt LaFleur of the Lions’ offense. “And those guys can, can get, they’re YAC machines. I mean, all those guys that they can get the ball to, and then they were able to get some down the field where he had the time to step up in the pocket. And Jared Goff is, he’s an excellent quarterback. He’s playing as good as anybody.”
The Packers’ four-man rush struggled to get home, but that was also a tall task with Detroit’s use of motions, misdirection, and play-action, along with how quickly Goff got the ball out of his hands, often to a pass catcher operating in space over the middle of the field. Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley did dial up 17 pressures, according to PFF, but Goff frequently had answers, often in the form of screens that were the perfect counter to Green Bay’s blitzes.
“Screens are always tough because you gotta get those guys out of the D-linemen re-tracing, you gotta set an edge,” said Isaiah McDuffie. “Screens are always tough and they’re a good team at doing it. It’s something they do and they’re good at it.”
Not that Green Bay needed to prove this, and losses are always going to hurt, but the Packers are a good football team who can hang with anyone. The Lions are just better right now, and the gap between the two was on display the most when it came to those crucial third and fourth-down situations.
With Detroit’s win, that all but eliminates the Packers from the NFC North race. And while there is still a month of regular season football to be played, with the caveat being that things can change, it would appear that the Packers and Lions are on course to meet for a third time this season. come the playoffs.
“It’s only a handful of plays that separate these types of games,” said Matt LaFleur. “And like I told our team, I mean, we’re going to have to earn the right to potentially come back here, and it’s not going to be easy. And we’ve got to put in the work and, but I’m confident in the resiliency of our group and that they’re going to continue to fight and push each other to get better and stay connected, because I do think we have a pretty good football team.”