Paul Bretl 12/3/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — Since the bye week, Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love has reduced the number of interceptions and off-target throws. However, that newfound ball security will be put to the test on Thursday against the Detroit Lions’ ball-hawking safety group.
“They do a pretty good job tracking the ball down, pretty good ball skills,” said Jayden Reed of Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. “They can make plays. They try to be physical.”
Heading into Week 14, the Lion’s defense has generated 14 interceptions, which is the third-most in football. Responsible for the bulk of those takeaways is Detroit’s safety duo of Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch.
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Of those 14 total interceptions, Joseph is responsible for seven of them–tied for the most in the NFL with Green Bay’s Xavier McKinney. Branch, meanwhile, has four and that is tied for the sixth-most this season.
I’m sure as we all remember, Joseph would have the pick-six off of Love just before halftime in the first meeting between these two teams that ended up putting the game out of reach fairly early on.
“Kerby’s a ballhawk,” said Jordan Love. “He’s playing the post for the most part and he does a good job and he has really good range, can cover the field, does a good job playing the quarterback and he’s just one of those guys who makes plays when the ball’s in the air.
“He’s another guy that you don’t see him dropping a lot of plays, similar to Xavier McKinney. So he’s a ballhawk, he’s going to make the plays when the ball’s in the air so he’s definitely a guy you’ve got to know where he’s at.”
Nine games into the Packers’ season and prior to their bye week, Love was responsible for throwing nine interceptions, which at that time, was tied for the league-high. Even on balls that weren’t picked off, he was relatively often putting the football in harms way with the 12th-highest turnover-worthy play rate at that point in the season as well.
But coming out of the bye, Love has thrown just one interception and none over the last two games. As always, there are many reasons behind any successes or failures in the NFL, but two important factors in this ball security turnaround is Love’s improved health, which is playing a part in the improved accuracy we’re seeing, along with better decision-making from Love, specifically knowing when to push the ball downfield and when to take what the defense is giving him.
“I think he’s playing his best ball right now. I really do,” said Matt LaFleur of Love. “I think he’s done a great job of taking what’s there, taking the checkdowns when they’re there, or taking the shots when they’re there. He’s moving around in the pocket really well.”
While the combination of Branch and Joseph will put Love’s improved decision-making and accuracy to the test, their presence on the back end doesn’t mean Green Bay can’t throw the ball either–as Love said, he just needs to know where those two are located at all times.
Over the last month, starting boundary cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Carlton Davis have missed games at various points due to injuries. Arnold returned to the lineup last Sunday against Chicago and Davis’ status for this week’s game is still up in the air. Since Week 9, the Lions have given up the 10th-most explosive pass plays in football, some of which can be attributed to their aggressive, man-heavy approach, which on the flip side, can lead to some big plays for the defense as well.
“They compete,” LaFleur said the Detroit pass defense. “They challenge, they play a ton of man coverage, and they’ve got good players, so I think they do a great job. They get a ton of man beaters. They do a great job with it, but I just think they make it hard on you. They contest everything, and if you make an errant throw, they’ll make you pay, because all those guys in the back end have great ball skills.”
Adding to the workload that is on the secondary’s plate right now are all of the injuries that the Detroit defense is navigating, particularly in the front seven, zapping some of the team’s pass rush juice, at least over the course of four quarters. And, as we all know, more time in the pocket for the quarterback means more coverage time in the secondary.
Along the defensive front Aidan Hutchinson, John Cominsky, Marcus Davenport, and Mekhi Wingo are all out for the regular season. Also on injured reserve are linebackers Alex Anzalone and Malcolm Rodriguez, cornerback Ennis Rakestraw, while Josh Paschal, and Levi Onwuzurike–along with Davis–are all considered day-to-day.
However, there may not be another team in football who have embraced the ‘next man up’ mentality as well as the Lions have.
“You take all that into consideration,” said Love of Detroit’s injuries, “look at our game, you go back and watch their game against the Bears last week. They’ve got a couple new faces out there, a couple guys have been banged up so some of the things they’ve done have changed a little bit, but you take all that.
“Every week there’s so many different things defenses do and they adjust week to week, you’ve got to kind of just look at everything and see what their game plan might be for this week and then obviously when we get out there Thursday we’ll make some in game adjustments to what they’re going.”
As the Packers’ offense has done in recent games, leaning on the run game is going to be the blueprint for success for this unit, particularly with the injuries that the Lions are dealing with along the defensive front and at linebacker. When moving the ball on the ground, it keeps the offense ahead of the sticks, thus opening up the playbook, specifically opportunities in the passing game that can be exploited.
“That opens up just a lot of things that we can get to,” said Tucker Kraft of Jacobs and the run game. “We can get to play pass, and we got shots off the runs that we have. So just opens the playbook up even more. And we don’t even have to get to those plays. We just still rely on our backs.”
That spark that Josh Jacobs and the run game have provided to the overall offense has resulted in a much better situational football from Green Bay, who has been quite efficient in the red zone and on third downs in recent weeks.
The first time these two teams met, the Packers were just 3-for-12 on third downs and 1-for-4 in the red zone after trailing early and becoming pass-heavy.
“I think offensively, when you look at it, that’s another game where we struggled in the red zone,” said Love of where the Packers’ offense has improved. “I feel like we were moving the ball pretty well and struggled—struggled to put up those points. And obviously it’s a good offense over there on the other side so we struggled to keep matching those points.
“So I think that’s an area that we’ve improved on. I think obviously the pick-6 was a key changing point in that game, so keeping, having great ball security is an area we’ve improved on as well , so that will be a big factor going into this game.”
Getting off to a fast start is obviously on the to-do list every week, but for the Packers offense against Detroit, it feels like a must with the high-powered Lions’ offense on the opposing sideline. Falling behind against this team plays right into Detroit’s hands, where they can lean heavily into what they do well offensively, which is run the ball and set up play-action opportunities off of that.