Paul Bretl | 11/24/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — Situationally this season, specifically on third downs and in the red zone, the Packers’ offense has struggled. But could a matchup against the San Francisco defense help Green Bay get back on track situationally?
On the year, the Packers’ rank 22nd in third-down success rate and 27th inside the red zone. For an offense that, overall, moved the ball well against Chicago last week, with five red zone visits in just six possessions while averaging 8.5 yards per play, it was their performance in these key situations that played a big factor in the game being as close as it was.
“I think it’s tough,” said Jordan Love of the offense’s red zone performance. “I think it’s a lot of just looking at what we’ve been doing, what defenses have been doing to try to stop us and just trying to find better plays, find out what we can do better, what I can do better to get us in that end zone and get over the kinda lulls we’re having in the red zone right now.”
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Despite being able to move the ball and generate chunk plays, the Packers were just 1-for-5 on third downs versus the Bears. In the red zone, they were 3-for-5, which certainly isn’t awful, but what really hurt them was that on their two red zone “misses,” they didn’t just not score a touchdown, but they didn’t leave with points.
While this game and performance is the most recent example of these third down and red zone woes, it’s a problem that has impacted this Green Bay offense really all season–as the numbers illustrate.
A lot of the issues experienced by the Packers begin with self-inflicted errors. Whether it be a penalty–which have been prevalent with Green Bay penalized 19 times in the red area this season–a dropped pass, an off-target throw, or whatever it may be, the Packers are putting themselves in long down-and-distance situations far too often.
“It has, and it’s been kind of as the year has gone on it’s been different problems,” said Adam Stenavich of the team’s third down struggles. “At first we had a lot of penalties. And then we had a lot of drops. And now we’ve just got to make sure we keep focusing on being productive and just honing in on simple plays and making sure we can play fast and go execute.”
The trickle-down effect of this is that the offense is then in a predictable passing situation, giving the defense the advantage because they aren’t necessarily worried about the run game anymore. The pass rush can then pin its ears back and when needing to convert a third-and-long, there are only so many routes that can be run in that situation.
In the red zone specifically, as Matt LaFleur has discussed in the past, having a strong run game to lean on is a very important element, but when behind the sticks, that ability is at the very least restricted, if not completely taken away.
Without question, the Packers have to clean up these errors. But when discussing something that has been a season-long issue, which in this case is the third down and red zone offense, it’s never just one thing. The execution has to improve as well.
“That was one of the weirdest games,” said Stenavich of the Bears’ game. “And a lot of the third downs were in the red zone, too. So it was just strange. We had the ball for, I think we had six real possessions and we had one punt, and the rest of them we were in the red zone.
“We did a great job moving the ball, so yeah, it’s one of those things, you can see how explosive we are, you can see how productive we can be, but we’ve really got to focus on finishing, whether it’s the third downs or in the red zone, finishing with touchdowns or at field goals at least. We’ve just got to be better in those situations for sure.”
As LaFleur noted on Monday following the Bears’ game, Chicago often played Cover-2 down in the red zone, to which LaFleur pointed out that if you can’t run the ball in those situations, it’s going to be “very difficult” for the offense. An example he gave was on the run play to Jayden Reed, where a missed block blew that play up in the backfield.
Another head-scratching part of that sequence was that Christian Watson, who put the Packers in the red zone on that drive with a 48-yard completion, wasn’t on the field during that red zone possession. Instead, the Packers opted to go with Bo Melton and Malik Heath, which not only means one of your best players isn’t on the field in a critical situation, but that’s a pretty obvious tip of the hand that a run play is coming.
“We had a linemen downfield so we went backwards,” LaFleur said on Monday. “Called the play to Jayden Reed, missed a block at the point of attack and went backwards again. Then, we threw the pick. That was a bad sequence, but I thought all-in-all we know and recognize where we’re having most of our struggles and most of our struggles right now on offense are coming in the red area.
“Again self-inflicted wounds whether it’s penalties or negative plays and then on third down we just have to do a better job. That’s the emphasis and we’re working hard at it. It’s just we haven’t gotten the results that we’d like right now.”
This is just one example, but the first failed red zone attempt by the Packers last week in Chicago seemed to perfectly encapsulate the issues they’ve often experienced this season. A penalty put them behind the sticks, a missed assignment led to a run play going for a loss, and then the drive ended with an interception.
Awaiting the Packers this week, however, is a 49ers’ defense that, overall, has still fared well against both the run and the pass, ranking top 10 in yards per attempt in each category, but is also a unit that ranks 25th in third down defense and 23rd in red zone defense.
Making matters more difficult for San Francisco is that they will be without Nick Bosa. According to ESPN, the 49ers’ team pressure rate with Bosa on the field is 33 percent compared to just 18 percent without him, which would rank as the lowest-mark in football.
“There’s some plays that you certainly would not want to do with him in the game,” LaFleur said of Bosa. “He’s just, he’s that type of player. He’s a game wrecker, and he can definitely impact the game.”
Obviously, who you’re going up against and how the opponent defends each play is going to impact the outcome, but for this Packers team, performing better on these critical downs starts with themselves from limiting the self-inflicted errors, to the execution and play-calls, and making sure your best players are on the field.
“I definitely think it’s something that fixable,” Love added. “You look last year, I think we were a lot better in the red zone. Whether that’s just the plays we’re drawing up, whether we were just finding better options versus what the defense was doing or just coming down to making those plays that we might not be making right now, but I’m concerned about it. I think it’s something that we will fix going forward, but it definitely hasn’t been up to the standard we’re trying to have it at.”