Paul Bretl | 11/23/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — The San Francisco 49ers will be without quarterback Brock Purdy on Sunday, but still in the backfield is the always-dangerous Christian McCaffrey in an unpredictable and diverse offensive scheme that the Packers need to be ready for.
Purdy would suffer a shoulder injury in the 49ers’ Week 11 matchup with Seattle. As the week progressed, it was looking less and less likely that Purdy would be able to play in this game. So starting for San Francisco will be Brandon Allen, a 2016 draft pick with a career completion rate of 57 percent on 263 attempts with 10 touchdowns to six interceptions. His last regular season pass attempt came during the 2022 season with Cincinnati.
“I know Brandon,” said Matt LaFleur on Friday. “I was with him in LA. He’s played, he’s been in the league now a long time. But I wouldn’t expect their offense to change a whole bunch.”
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In terms of the 49ers’ playbook, their offense is still going to be their offense–there just isn’t enough time in a few practices to make any sweeping changes–and the already heavily featured run game will likely take center stage on Sunday.
Everything begins with the ground game for the 49ers. Even with Purdy under center prior to this game, San Francisco averaged the seventh-most rush attempts per game this season. And despite being without McCaffrey for much of the year, San Francisco is still averaging 5.0 yards per rush as a team–the fourth-best mark in football–and included 2022 undrafted rookie Jordan Mason coming out of nowhere to produce over 700 rushing yards in only 10 games.
McCaffrey is coming off a 1,700-yard season in 2023 and has been back for two games now after dealing with an Achilles injury at the start of the season. He’s been featured heavily, carrying the ball 32 times compared to just three carries for Mason, but has struggled to get going, averaging a modest 3.7 yards per rush.
However, you won’t catch the Packers fooled by that small sample size. They know who they’re going up against.
“I think he’s one of the most dynamic backs in this league. He runs hard, he’s fast, he’s got great contact balance, he can stay in and protect, he’s great in the pass game, he’s awesome in the red zone. I think he’s a dynamic football player.”
There is the obvious big-play potential that McCaffrey brings to the offense when he has the ball in his hands with his speed and ability to make defenders miss. In 2023, McCaffrey would generate the most missed tackles in football among running backs, helping him also lead the league in rushes of 10 yards and 15 yards as well.
But in addition that clearly important element is McCaffrey’s versatility. McCaffrey cannot only be used in the passing game, but can handle a variety of route concepts as well. The 49ers will run him between the tackles and get him on the perimeter. Then you add in the pre-snap motion, misdirections, and eye candy that Kyle Shanahan will throw at opponents, and the already difficult challenge of trying to contain McCaffrey becomes much more daunting.
You put all of that together, and that can be a real horizontal stressor for a defense, helping to create space and running lanes that can be exploited, along with opportunities in the passing game.
“Just as a presence,” said LaFleur. “I mean, he’s the best back, probably in the game and just all the versatility that he can do. He’s just different than a lot of backs in terms of, they design a lot of routes for him. So I think he’s, he’s just so explosive too. So you’ve got to account for him.”
With players like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, it’s not as if the passing game can be forgotten about if you’re the Packers, especially with Shanahan’s ability to find ways to get his playmakers the ball in space. But, to some degree, the passing game is going to be hindered–Allen isn’t Purdy, after all–and if Green Bay can contain McCaffrey and the run game, moving the ball for this offense should become a lot more difficult.
When a defense is able to contain the run game there’s a positive trickle-down effect to the rest of that unit. It puts the offense behind the sticks and in predictable passing situations. In these scenarios, the game is now in Allen’s hands, and it allows the Packers’ pass rush to pin its ears back while the secondary has the advantage from a coverage standpoint–there’s only so many routes an offense can run in long down-and-distance situations.
“I think that’s super important,” said Xavier McKinney of the time of possession battle. “Obviously when you’re able to have the ball longer than the opposing team, it works out well, better for you. And I think it’s super important for this team to kind of be able to get off the field as quick as you can and not just be out there creating these long drives and letting them have the ball for long periods of time, so I think that’s gonna be super important this game and I think that’s something we’ll emphasize.”
For much of the year, the Packers’ run defense has held its own. They entered last week’s game against Chicago, allowing 4.2 yards per attempt, which ranked as the eighth-lowest mark in football at that time. However, the Bears, who keep in mind, entered that contest with a limited passing game of their own, were able to control the game on the ground, oftentimes through designed quarterback runs that caught the Green Bay defense off-guard.
McCaffrey getting the ball on Sunday over and over again certainly shouldn’t come as a surprise for the Packers, but how Shanahan gets him the ball or how he deploys McCaffrey is where the added wrinkles could lie in an effort to help his shorthanded offense out.
“The motions, the misdirections, the things that they try to disguise in that offense,” said Javon Bullard of the 49ers. “They just make you dial in on alignments, like very critical, you bump too far against this team, they can take it 75 yards. Everything got to be critical…You gotta know where everybody at, man. You gotta know where everybody at all the time.”
How the 49ers utilize the run game will certainly differ compared to what the Bears did, but that Week 11 game is the blueprint for what San Francisco will want to replicate against the Green Bay offense. Success on the ground means shorter down-and-distance situations and manageable third downs, where Chicago was extremely effective. That can then result in long possessions that wear down the Packers’ defense while keeping Jordan Love and the offense on the sidelines.
The Packers know McCaffrey is coming, but can they stop him?