Paul Bretl | 10/24/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-5 on the season, but that’s not the team that the Packers see. What Green Bay sees is a team that isn’t all that far off from being 5-2, if you ask Matt LaFleur.
“I think when you look at this team they have lost a game by three points, by four points and by five points,” LaFleur said on Wednesday. “And they were in command vs. Houston and vs. Miami and they easily should’ve won, they could be 5-2 sitting the same as us right now. So I think that speaks to who this football team is.”
What the Jaguars 2-5 record doesn’t necessarily show is an explosive offense that can put up yards and points, whether that be through the run game or in the passing game.
An explosive play is categorized as a rush of 10-plus yards or a pass of 20-plus yards. The Jaguars will enter Week 8 ranked 10th in explosive plays generated. This includes totaling the sixth-most explosive plays in the run game and the 11th most through the air.
“They’ve got weapons in every phase of the game,” added LaFleur. “They’ve got receivers that are explosive, the tight end is explosive. They’ve got two runners. They’ve got a franchise quarterback and then I think you look at the defense side of the ball and just their ability to get after the quarterback is, it’s real.”
Led by Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, the Jaguars’ offense is very willing to push the ball downfield. Lawrence leads all quarterbacks in pass attempts of 20-plus yards this season and is first in completions as well. Receivers Brian Thomas Jr. and Christian Kirk both are in the top-15 among all receivers in downfield targets, with Thomas primarily lining up on the boundary and Kirk from the slot.
Thomas currently ranks sixth among all receivers in total receiving yards with 513 and has put up those numbers by averaging an impressive 17.1 yards per catch–which is also the 12th most in football.
“A lot,” said McKinney when asked what Thomas adds to the offense. “He gives them–it’s a vertical threat for them, obviously. He’s a guy that has great hands and he’s got good speed. I think it helps their offense a lot and he’s another playmaker that’s added to what they already have. Like I said, they got a talented offense, man and they got some really good guys.”
Jacksonville also recently got back tight end Evan Engram, who as Xavier McKinney put it, is more receiver than tight end. Last season, Engram caught 114 passes and nearly eclipsed the 1,000-yard receiving mark.
At running back, Tank Bigsby has been a big play threat just about every time the ball touches his hands. On 67 rush attempts this season, Bigsby is averaging 6.2 yards per carry–the second-best mark in football. He’s shown to be very difficult to bring down, ranking first in average yards after contact and fourth in missed tackles forced.
“They’ve got a lot of explosive guys,” McKinney said. “Obviously, their record doesn’t really say it all for them. They’ve got a lot of talent on that offensive side and, really, as a team. We talked about it this morning. I think it was three games or four games where the games have been lost within like a matter of seven points or something like that.
“They can easily be on the positive side. Sometimes, things shake out and the games that you’re supposed to win, you don’t win. So, I think that’s kind of the story of their team. They’ve got a really good team where the games that they’ve lost have been within a very small margin.”
One of the issues for the Jaguars has been the overall consistency of the offense. While they’ve been able to generate big plays, they’ve also struggled to sustain drives, ranking near the bottom of the NFL in average time of possession.
While big plays often lead to points, it’s also a tough way to live in the NFL when that home run threat is an offense’s primary source for moving the ball. This boom-or-bust approach on offense for the Jaguars has either resulted in explosive plays or short possessions that end with a quick punt.
Success this week for the Packers’ defense likely begins with containing Bigsby. Slowing the run game can put the offense behind the sticks and in obvious passing situations, which takes away some of the bite that the big-play passing game has. On the flip side, moving the ball on the ground consistently sets up short down-and-distance situations, opening up the playbook for Jacksonville, and forcing Green Bay to defend both the run and pass on a given play.
Complementary football is always important, but as we saw two weeks ago against Arizona, the Packers’ ability on offense to score early zapped the Cardinals’ ability to get the run game going. Picking up an early lead this week–against a Jaguars defense that has given up a lot of points this season–will make it more challenging for the Jacksonville offense to lean on the run game if they are constantly playing from behind.
From the outside, with the Packers coming off an emotional win over Houston and a matchup with Detroit on the horizon in Week 9, this matchup looks like it could have trap-game potential. However, internally, you won’t catch the Packers looking ahead–they know that they are facing a very talented team this week.
“I don’t think any games, you can overlook,” said Jordan Love. “We always say we take it one week at a time. All of our focus is on this week. We’re not looking forward to games that are coming in the future. I think if everybody has that mindset, we’ll be good.”