Paul Bretl | 10/19/2024
GREEN BAY, Wis. — Not unlike the Packers, the Houston Texans’ offense has a variety of ways to hurt opposing defenses. If a defense prioritizes stopping the run, CJ Stroud and his pass catchers will take advantage of matchups. If a defense provides additional help on the back end, running back Joe Mixon will happily run against a lighter front.
To a degree, if your the Packers defense, you pick your poison and live with the results.
“It’s one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL with a good running game, a good quarterback and a good coach,” said defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. “This is going to be a great challenge for us and we’re excited for that.”
The Houston offense will enter Sunday’s game averaging the fifth-most yards per game at just over 375, and that unit puts up those kind of numbers both on the ground and through the air.
Leading the offense is Stroud, who has emerged over the last year as one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL. On the season, he’s completed 68 percent of his throws at 7.6 yards per pass with 10 touchdowns to four interceptions. Among all quarterbacks, Stroud is ninth in completion rate and fifth in passing yards with 1,576.
However, going beyond the numbers, what makes Stroud so difficult to defend and gameplan for is that he’s comfortable in just about every situation. He will make the pre-snap adjustments, he’ll push the ball downfield when the opportunity is there or he is perfectly fine taking what the defense gives him. Stroud’s comfortable under pressure, he can make plays outside of the pocket, and can take off when needed.
That well-rounded ability allows Stroud to have an answer for just about whatever it is that defenses throw at him.
“He’s smart,” said safety Javon Bullard. “Very smart. Feel like that’s one of his best attributes, being able to ID things pre-snap. I feel like intelligence is one of his biggest characteristics on the football field. But other than that, he’s just a great football player. He’s a guy that can hurt you with his legs if need be. He has a great arm. He can make all the throws on the field. So it’s going to be a great matchup for when he comes into Lambeau, for sure.”
For the second game, however, the Texans’ passing game will be missing a key presence with wide receiver Nico Collins on injured reserve. Collins has been the big play threat in the Houston offense, averaging almost 18.0 yards per catch through five games. Earlier in the week, Matt LaFleur would call Collins one of the best receivers in football.
Although it was just a one-game sample size, last week’s performance from the Texans’ passing game was modest without Collins in the mix against New England. Stroud finished the game 20-of-31 passing for 192 yards at 6.2 yards per attempt with three scores and an interception.
Even with Collins on the field, Stroud would spread the ball around, with four different players having at least 30 targets on the season. Meaning that if an opponent became overly committed to taking away Collins, the ball would go elsewhere, whether that be to Stefon Diggs, Dalton Schultz, or Tank Dell, and the Texans’ offense could still burn you. Finding a way to limit one or even two players doesn’t mean that the defense has contained the Houston offense.
With that said, all three of those other pass catchers are averaging under 10.0 yards per catch on the season. Diggs and Dell both rank in the bottom half in average depth of target as well at the receiver position. So there is a different dynamic when it comes to defending Houston without Collins, as it can allow the defense to shrink the field by playing closer to the line of scrimmage. Where Collins made his biggest impact were on those intermediate routes from 10-19 yards from the line of scrimmage and with his YAC ability.
This, of course, isn’t a full-proof approach by any means–that doesn’t exist against Houston–as it is still going to leave members of the secondary in some one-on-one situations against some very good pass-catchers. However, when it comes to picking your poison, perhaps the Packers’ emphasis should be on trying to contain Mixon and the Houston run game and taking their chances at times in the secondary against the Collins-less passing game.
Mixon returned from injury last week and made an immediate impact, averaging a hefty 7.8 yards per rush on 13 carries. Mixon is a physical runner and one that is difficult to bring down.
“He’s still playing at an elite level,” said LaFleur. “You could see a difference last week when he’s back in action. He’s a guy that we haven’t gone up against too many times. I know a couple of years ago we played him in Cincinnati. Just he’s a really physical runner. There’s nothing he can’t do. He’s a load. He’s a threat in the passing game. He’s a great pass protector.
“I just think he’s a complete back, a guy that we’ve always kind of admired from afar, just watching how he runs. He definitely made a difference last week. He had a couple explosion runs. There was one in the passing game as well. I think their offense takes on a different complexion when he’s in the game.”
Against the run this season, the Packers have had mixed results, but are coming off a very good performance against a dynamic Arizona offense this past week. While it won’t be easy, finding a way to at least limit Mixon can have a negative trickle-down effect to the rest of the offense. The impact on containing the run is that it will put Houston behind the sticks and in obvious passing situations, which will give the Packers defense–both in the trenches and on the back end–the advantage.
On the flip side, if Mixon is able to get going and can regularly put the Texans in short down-and-distance situations, now Houston is the one with the upper hand. At that point, the ability to marry the run with the passing game will open up opportunities through the air for Houston and force the Packers to defend the entire field, which can result in more one-on-one matchups for the offense along with more space to operate in.
Having to defend all the playmakers and Stroud is already a difficult enough challenge. Having to do that while not knowing if it’s a run or a pass coming your way feels nearly impossible.
“I think Mixon’s a really good player, a violent runner, strong, sees it well,” said Hafley. “Big-play, explosive guy. That’s the one thing when you turn on their tape, they’re No. 1 in explosive passes. And then when he’s in the game, there’s the explosive-run element because he can go. I think both backs are really good players, the line’s good and, obviously, they have really good receivers.”
Complementary football will go a long way in this matchup as well. While the Green Bay offense will have its own challenges against a very good Houston defense, contributing to the Packers’ success versus the Cardinals run defense was that they held an early lead. As the game progressed, this forced Arizona to become more pass-heavy and one-dimensional–which, again, is a position all defenses want to find themselves in.
As we’ve seen from the Hafley defense, and one of the most encouraging aspects of it, is that there isn’t any one size fits all gameplan. Sure, perhaps early on the emphasis will be to limit Mixon, but that could change as the game unfolds depending on the score and given situation in that moment. As the game ebbs and flows, so will the Packers’ defensive approach.
“I think it’s about adapting,” Hafley said. “I’ve said this since I got here, it’s not like, ‘Hey, here’s the playbook. This is in. Go run the defense.’ It’s each week, what did we look like? What do we look like when they watch us on tape? What can we do a little bit different to counter that? What do we do really well? Let’s do more of it, make it look different.
“And then as we start to see certain players do certain things, how can we best use them to improve? We have to keep getting better. That’s the whole key to this whole entire thing as we go.”